Injuries stink. You hate to see them happen and you always wonder what it will look like when they return from them. We are seeing a fantastic comeback season from Jacob deGrom, who is finally healthy. Thank you Baseball Gods. The other great story was what it will look like when Sandy Alcantara returns to the mound. Needless to say, the results have not been what we expected and the value he has from a trade standpoint has significantly gone down.

Tough Year for Sandy so Far

One of the biggest stories was not a matter of “if”, but “when” the Miami Marlins trade their ace Sandy Alcantara. The organization has begun to say that they would keep him on a pitch count in order to preserve him, so that way the team acquiring his services has him pitching meaningful innings in the postseason.

It’s not to say that the trade won’t happen. But if you are the Marlins front office, the return you may have had in mind won’t come to fruition and this given point of the season. The Alcantara we once knew is not present this season and it’s a shame to see. That’s what injuries can do and regaining form after them is just part of this great sport. But in regard to his value, here is why it’s gone significantly downward for Sandy this season.

Alcantara has made 11 starts this season for the Marlins. Overall, he has a whopping 8.47 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. That’s…not ideal by any means whatsoever. The good news is that the fastball velocity is very much present, as he does rank in the 92nd percentile in that regard. You never truly know if the velocity is going to be present after Tommy John, but luckily for Alcantara it is. Okay, so the bad news.

There’s lots of it. Just going back to the three seasons, walk rates have not been a huge issue for him. 2021 it sat at 6%, followed by 5.6% in 2022, and then his hurt season it was 6.3%. Overall, very steady and stable. The bad news is that his walk rate has nearly doubled, sitting at 12.6%. That’s an awful lot of traffic on the basepaths and when you pair that with his strikeout rate sitting at just 16.3%, his walk to strikeout ratio is certainly not ideal. It’s a downfall from his 23.4% he had during the 2022 season and sat in the 20+% range from 2020-2022.

It’s just hard to see. Even with the velocity, he is just having a rough go of things. He struggles to get batters to chase and whiff. He’s lost movement on his curveball and his slider, which does not help either. He allows a lot of hard contact and gets barreled around the diamond. He is getting hit the hardest he’s ever gotten hit in his career.

Overall, it is just rough to see. The strikeouts per nine innings is down and the walks are up. Not to mention, the home runs per nine innings are the highest of his career.

As tough as it’s been, it’s so easy to forget how good the player was. From 2018-2022, Sandy never had an ERA above 3.50 and had a career low ERA of 2.28 in 2022. The WHIP was always quite low. He was pitching like a caliber ace. There is so much evidence that points us towards him returning to the form just knowing what type of pitcher that he was.

But given how this year is going, the value that everyone thought the Marlins would fetch for him is likely down and now you begin to wonder as to when they truly make that move and pull the trigger.

Alcantara is under contract until 2026 and has a club option in 2027.