Seeing a small-market team hold a winning record always warms my heart, especially when it’s the Royals. Manager Matt Quatraro helped Kansas City creep into the playoffs last year with an 86-76 record in a thrilling AL Wild Card race. This year, with a nearly identical team and payroll, the story could have a similar ending. In reality, however, the Royals aren’t on an 85+ win track.

A big difference in this year’s lineup versus last is the production. Bobby Witt Jr. is the most impactful in the lineup, and it’s not even a long shot. He’s slashing .306/.379/.493 with 13 doubles, 17 RBIs, four home runs, and nine stolen bases. While he’s the favorite to represent the Royals at the All-Star game, it’s unreasonable to expect him to keep hitting at this rate. Although he’s getting plenty of assistance from Maikel Garcia, who’s batting .319 with four home runs, no one else is pulling their weight to balance the lineup’s production.

No other starting positional player outside of Witt and Garcia is batting better than .250. Surprisingly, Salvador Pérez is only at .244, and Vinnie Pasquantino is once again showing signs of development pains that haven’t been fully ironed out. Pérez gets a pass after winning either a Silver Slugger, All-Star and/or Gold Glove Award in 10 of his 13 seasons in the league, but time has run out on Pasquantino’s early-season struggles. With only Witt and Garcia pulling their weight, the Royals will have a tough time competing.

Overwhelmingly, the pitching is the best facet of this team. KC starters rank fourth overall in ERA and fifth in WHIP in the league. Additionally, their bullpen carries a 2.98 ERA and has converted on 11 of 15 save opportunities. Although the pitching has gotten the job done, there are cracks in this rotation that will surely become more problematic.

Kris Bubic has emerged as the team’s best starter, and that’s an issue. The fourth starter in a five-man rotation shouldn’t be considered the team’s ace. Seth Lugo hasn’t been dialed in and Michael Lorenzen and Michael Wacha are unpredictable. What’s even more concerning with Lorenzen and Wacha is that they each allowed four or more earned runs against Baltimore, which is batting .227.

Overall, the Royals aren’t ready to beat winning teams. K.C. has only bested teams with losing records, asserting merely a +1 run differential, and has only four wins by five or more runs. They’ve done well at keeping their losses close, but they haven’t played any large-market teams with lineups that pack a punch, and rotations that simply out-pitch them. Their real colors and skills will show once Kansas City starts playing teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox.

The Royals’ roster is certainly capable of making the playoffs, but deeper AL East and AL West races will give them more trouble than expected. To clinch a postseason spot, they’ll not only need more than Witt to step up their game, but they’ll also likely have to add an arm or bat ( likely both) at the trade deadline.