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Is Penn State’s Drew Allar a Lock to be No. 1 Pick In 2026 NFL Draft?

All eyes are on Penn State quarterback Drew Allar heading into the 2026 college football season.

The Nittany Lions’ QB decided to return to school this season and wait one more year to make the move to the NFL. There are many reports coming out that state if Allar had come out of school this year, he would have been the No. 2 overall pick to the Cleveland Browns — behind only Cam Ward.

The Browns waited on the quarterback position. They traded down from No. 2 and selected Mason Graham at five. Cleveland later drafted Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel in the third round, which came as a surprise. The next surprise came when the Browns finally took Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders off the board in the fifth, making him the second QB selected in three rounds. Many believe if Allar came out, he would have answered the Browns’ problems much earlier in the draft.

This begs the question, is Allar a lock to go No. 1 overall in 2026?

Allar will leave Penn State as a three-year starter. Last season, he led the Nittany Lions to the semifinals of the CFB Playoff. He completed 66.5% of his passes for 3,327 yards with 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Allar is also capable of using his legs to make plays. There is no doubt that he has the intangibles needed at the next level.

It was viewed as a weak quarterback class in 2025. The Tennessee Titans came to like Ward and made him the first-overall pick. After that, the position did not go again until the New York Giants traded back in for Jaxson Dart. The 2026 class is far different.

Allar is in a field that includes Texas’ Arch Manning and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier. Manning has the bloodline and the natural ability that is expected to translate well. Nussmeier has gained attention as well despite lacking a bit of size. He has a strong arm and can make all throws on the field. Allar possesses it all as well.

At 6-foot-5, 240 pounds, Allar has the size needed to succeed in the NFL. He has shown off his big arm at times while being able to escape the pocket and get yards with his legs. Going into his third year, scouts will likely want to see his decision-making improve. We can reference the final play against Notre Dame in the CFB Playoff that set up the Irish for the game-winner.

With Allar back under center, the Nittany Lions are contenders once again heading into the 2026 season. He will look to lead the team to a National Championship before making the move into the NFL.

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