Is 2025 the year the Reds finally end their 28-year playoff win drought? Perhaps, but the real question is whether they have the gusto needed to make the postseason in the first place.

The Reds have had a long history of losing even with a fully loaded roster. They lost the 2010 NLDS, 2012 NLDS, and 2013 NL Wild Card despite having prime Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips in the lineup, then-ace Johnny Cueto, and a lights-out bullpen led by none other than Aroldis Chapman. Cincinnati also failed to move on from the 2020 NL Wild Card series against the Braves with a cast of players who are now considered stars on their respective teams. Ever heard of Nick Castellanos, Luis Castillo, Eugenio Suárez, and Kyle Farmer? That’s right, they used play for Cincinnati at the same time. What a shame it never amounted to anything.

Excitement for the Reds has dwindled, but it recently surged with the arrival of Hunter Greene, who reached triple-digit fastball speeds in high school, and ESPN’s No. 1 overall prospect in 2023 Elly De La Cruz. Although Greene and De La Cruz have been established in the league for nearly three years, the Reds still haven’t had the juice to breach October baseball. Greene has been volatile health-wise, De La Cruz took a year to adjust to the big leagues, and the rest of the team has been OK, at best.

Although the Reds still have the misfortune of being mismanaged by a cheap and overbearing owner, this year presents a few noticeable differences from the last few. The Reds also have a more formidable pitching staff featuring Greene, who has a 2.70 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over six starts, Nick Lodolo, who has a 2.25 ERA and 0.86 WHIP through 36 innings, and recently-acquired Brady Singer, who has a 3.62 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five starts. So far, the rotation and relievers have held their own.

Cincinnati also has a surprisingly lively lineup that isn’t entirely reliant on De La Cruz. Former Dodger Gavin Lux and long-time Oriole Austin Hays are banging the ball around, slashing .352/.438/.473 and .365/.431/.712 respectively, with Hays already collecting five home runs this season. Austin Wynns has also had a great start to the season. In the 11 games he’s started, Wynns has a .433 batting average and .485 OBP with 11 RBIs and three homers. With a more even distribution of power and plate production throughout the lineup, the Reds have swept three series and won two.

So that means the second place, 16-13 Reds will be wild card contenders this year, right? Wrong.

Cincinnati’s success this year is shielded by its opponents’ ineptitude. Cincinnati’s sweeps came against the worst team in baseball (none other than the Rockies) and the Pirates, who are a Paul Skenes injury away from entering a free-fall. They took the series over the Orioles, who aren’t playing better than the Pirates and the Giants — alright, I’ll give them credit for that one — but the point still stands that the Reds have yet to string together consecutive wins against dominant teams.

It’s hard to see the Reds being swept several times in a row with their improved offense and more robust pitching staff, but dropping back-to-back series will eventually add up. Even with new skipper Terry Francona, who brought the Guardians to six postseasons out of the 11 seasons he managed there, the Reds still have to compete against the Cubs and Brewers, who don’t seem to be falling in the standings any time soon. And in wild card terms there’s a formidable foe in the NL West, with four teams eligible to make the playoffs if the season ended today.

It may be too soon to jump on Cincinnati’s hype train, but the pieces seem to be coming together for the first time in four years. Save your money and wait until the Reds actually prove themselves before betting on the Reds making the postseason.