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Why Nikola Jokic Was Robbed of the MVP
This week, the NBA named Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder as the league MVP. Despite a strong season by Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder, the committee got it wrong. Denver’s Nikola Jokic earned the right to win his fourth MVP award.
There’s a strong debate on what merits the MVP award. Here are some questions people throw out every year:
- Was this person the best player that year?
- How did that player’s team fare in the regular season?
- Did this player add significant value to the team?
The MVP should not be based upon:
- How did the player do after the regular season?
- Has this player won the MVP before or in recent years?
The MVP award is the highest individual honor a player can earn during his playing career. This achievement is permanently marked in history. People will look back in 30-40 years, compare the two careers, and question why the NBA didn’t give it to Jokic.
Did this player add significant value to the team?
It’s hard to judge whether Jokic or Gilgeous-Alexander brings the most significant value to their respective teams. Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander were the best players on their teams, and I’m sure the season would go differently if Jokic or Gilgeous-Alexander were on another squad. They both elevate players around them.
SGA is surrounded by the youngest core in the NBA. Six other players on his team averaged double-digit scoring for the season, but there hasn’t been a “star” that’s emerged for Gilgeous-Alexander. They just all play like a team.
For Jokic, he has a championship pedigree from his win back in 2023. He and Jamal Murray lead the charge while the team can rely on veterans Michael Porter Jr, Aaron Gordon, and Russell Westbrook to fill in the gaps.
These are two very different situations we can’t compare and contrast. Nobody expected the Thunder to be this good so early, while the Nuggets were that surprise team a couple of years ago.
How did that player’s team fare in the regular season?
The nod would obviously go to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the 68-14 record for the Oklahoma City Thunder, as opposed to the 50-32 record for the Denver Nuggets. But we must consider a couple of other items in this regard.
Here are the last 10 MVPs and their final standing overall in the NBA:
- 2023-24: Nikola Jokic (57-25; 3rd)
- 2022-23: Joel Embiid (54-28; 3rd)
- 2021-22: Nikola Jokic (48-34; 11th)
- 2020-21: Nikola Jokic (47-25; 5th)
- 2019-20: Giannis Antetokounmpo (56-17; 1st)
- 2018-19: Giannis Antetokounmpo (60-22; 1st)
- 2017-18: James Harden (65-17; 1st)
- 2016-17: Russell Westbrook (47-35; 10th)
- 2015-16: Stephen Curry (73-9; 1st)
- 2014-15: Stephen Curry (67-15; 1st)
50% of the time, the player who helped their team to the best overall record won the MVP. It’s ironic that the two times the MVP award went to someone whose team finished middle of the pack were the Nuggets (Jokic in 2021-22) and the Thunder (Westbrook in 2016-17).
It was clear those individuals deserved the MVP those years. Just look at the statistics.
JOKIC (2021-22): 27.1 PPG, 13.8 RPG, 7.9 APG, 58.3% FG, 48-34
WESTBROOK (2016-17): 31.6 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 10.4 APG, 47-35
Nobody denied Jokic or Westbrook in those years because of their team’s success, or lack thereof. If we picked the best player on the best team, here’s who the MVP awards would have went to those years:
DEVIN BOOKER (2021-22): 26.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.8 APG, 46.6% FG, 64-18
STEPH CURRY (2016-17): 25.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 6.6 APG, 67-15
It’s clear to me that Jokic and Westbrook outperformed the best player on the best team, despite having a 16-win differential in Jokic’s year and a 20-win differential in Westbrook’s year.
So while an MVP shouldn’t go to someone stuffing the stat sheet on a 20-win team, it doesn’t always have to be based on how their team falls in the standings.
Was this person the best player that year?
I think this is what it has to boil down to. Let’s strictly compare Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Nikola Jokic.
GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER: 32.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 6.4 APG, 1.7 SPG, 51.9% F
JOKIC: 29.6 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 10.2 APG, 1.8 SPG, 57.6% FG
Gilgeous-Alexander won the scoring title, but that is his only claim to fame. Joel Embiid was the last scoring champion to win the MVP, but before that, it was James Harden in 2017-18. So this clearly isn’t the only indicator of the league’s Most Valuable Player.
From a historical standpoint, how the seasons will stack up down the road, there’s nothing super significant about Gilgeous-Alexander and the season he had. Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring average for the season is 22nd all-time and still behind performances Harden had twice, Embiid, and Luka Doncic.
For Jokic, no player in NBA history has ever finished top 10 in four major categories (points, rebounds, assists, and steals). Jokic not only finished top 10, but he finished top 3 in all those categories.
Jokic became the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double in a season. The most recent person to do this, Russell Westbrook, won the MVP that year despite his team having a 47-35 record.
And to stake the claim even more, nobody knows how Jokic could have improved after winning 3 league MVPs already. Jokic set career-highs this year in points, assists, steals, 3-point percentage, and minutes played.
However you slice and dice it, Jokic was robbed of his fourth MVP. This well-deserved campaign would have put him in the upper echelon of players. Jokic would have become the sixth player in NBA history to win four or more MVP awards (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and LeBron James).
The only logical explanation is that voter fatigue played a role in Jokic not achieving this milestone. If that’s the case, shame on the committee that can’t look objectively at a special season Jokic won’t be acknowledged for.
For that reason, this will always be remembered as the season Nikola Jokic should have been MVP.
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